November 2026 Ocean Freight Rate Forecast: Carrier Hikes vs. Market Reality
Over the past few days, several importers have asked us whether they should rush to ship their cargo after receiving freight rate increase notices from shipping lines.
Our answer is simple: some rate increases are confirmed, but that does not mean every route will become more expensive in November.
The latest announcements show a clear difference between trades. Carriers are raising rates on selected Mediterranean, African and Oceania routes, while spot rates on the China–US trade have recently come under pressure.
For importers, the key is to understand which increases apply to their shipments, when the new rates take effect, and whether the announced increases are reflected in actual quotations.
1. November Freight Rate Changes: What Have Carriers Announced?
CMA CGM and MSC: Higher Rates for Mediterranean and Black Sea Routes
Both CMA CGM and MSC have published new Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates for shipments from Asia or the Far East to the Mediterranean, North Africa and Black Sea regions.
For CMA CGM, the announced 40-foot container rates for November 1–14 include:
| Destination | 40-foot container |
|---|---|
| Western Mediterranean | $4,900 |
| Adriatic | $5,000 |
| Eastern Mediterranean | $5,200 |
| Black Sea | $5,200 |
| North Africa | $7,100 |
CMA CGM has also announced higher FAK rates for November 15–30. For example, the rate to the Western Mediterranean increases from $4,900 to $5,400 per 40-foot container, while the Black Sea rate rises from $5,200 to $5,700. These are published FAK rates, not guaranteed final invoice totals.
MSC has announced a similar mid-month adjustment. Its published 40-foot rates for November 15–30 include $5,300 to the Western Mediterranean, $5,700 to the Eastern Mediterranean, $5,900 to the Black Sea and $7,600 to Algeria.
What this means: The second half of November already has published rate increases for selected Mediterranean and nearby destinations. However, the actual price available to an importer will still depend on the carrier, booking terms, cargo details and applicable surcharges.
Maersk: Peak Season Surcharges for Oceania
Maersk has introduced Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) for shipments from Asia to Australia, New Zealand and selected Pacific destinations, effective from the November 1 price calculation date.
The announced charges include:
| Destination | 20-foot container | 40-foot container |
|---|---|---|
| Australia, Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands | $500 | $1,000 |
| New Zealand, Fiji and selected Pacific islands | $300 | $600 |
These charges apply to non-SPOT bookings; Maersk states that the PSS does not apply to SPOT bookings. The applicable price calculation date and booking terms therefore matter when checking a quotation.
Africa: Additional Charges on Specific Routes
Several announced increases also affect shipments from China to Africa.
CMA CGM has announced a $300/TEU PSS for shipments from China to South Africa, Madagascar, Mozambique and Mauritius from November 1. For selected West African destinations, its announced PSS varies by region: $700/TEU for the central range, $900/TEU for the southern range and $400/TEU for Senegal. These West African charges apply to dry and reefer cargo under short-term contracts, subject to the carrier’s stated conditions.
Maersk has separately announced a PSS of $1,000 per 20-foot container and $2,000 per 40-foot container for shipments from the specified Far East Asian origins to South Africa and Mauritius, effective November 9. For Vietnam-origin shipments, the effective date is November 10.
These are route-specific announcements. They should not be interpreted as evidence that every African destination, or every shipment booked with every carrier, will incur the same increase.
What About China–US Shipping Rates?
The US trade should not be excluded from the November rate discussion.
Several carriers have filed General Rate Increases (GRIs) effective November 1 for the Asia–US eastbound trade. The announced increases range from $2,000 to $3,000 per 40-foot container, depending on the carrier.
However, a filed GRI does not guarantee that the market will sustain the full increase.
Drewry’s October 29 assessment showed Shanghai–Los Angeles rates down 6% week over week to $7,514/FEU, while Shanghai–New York rates fell 5% to $9,631/FEU. Drewry also expected further downward pressure as US import demand eased.
The takeaway for November: Carrier announcements are an important signal, but the actual market response matters just as much. Importers should compare current, route-specific quotations rather than assuming that every published increase will be passed through in full.
2. Why Your Final Shipping Cost May Be Higher Than the Quoted Rate
A published freight rate does not always represent the final amount you will pay.
MSC’s November 15–30 FAK rates for a 40-foot container include the Global Fuel Surcharge (GFS) and applicable ECA surcharge. However, other charges remain separate. (MSC)
For example, a 40-foot container from China to the Western Mediterranean has a published FAK rate of $5,300 for November 15–30.
The following charges may apply in addition:
| Surcharge | Rate | Cost per 40-foot container |
|---|---|---|
| Carbon Limitation Surcharge (CLS) | $20/TEU | $40 |
| Carbon Review Surcharge (CRS), Mediterranean | $133/TEU | $266 |
| Additional charges above | $306 |
This brings the total to at least $5,606 before terminal handling charges (THC) and other applicable fees.
MSC also lists separate Piracy Risk and Suez Canal surcharges for specified destinations. Where applicable, these can add further costs. (MSC surcharge notice)
Before accepting a quotation, ask whether it includes all applicable surcharges, origin and destination THC, and local charges. Also confirm the rate’s validity period and whether it applies to your actual sailing.
A low headline rate does not necessarily mean a low final shipping cost.
3. Will Freight Rates Rise Again in Late November?
The answer depends on the route.
Europe and Mediterranean: Published Increases Are Already in Place
MSC has announced higher FAK rates for November 15–30 on selected routes. For example, its published 40-foot rates increase as follows compared with November 1–14:
| Route | Nov 1–14 | Nov 15–30 |
|---|---|---|
| Western Mediterranean | $5,000 | $5,300 |
| Eastern Mediterranean | $5,100 | $5,700 |
| Black Sea | $5,300 | $5,900 |
These are published carrier rates, not proof that every booking will be charged the full amount. (MSC)
The important distinction is that a rate increase can be announced even when actual market quotations remain lower.
US Routes: Further Increases Are Less Certain
The latest market data offers a more cautious picture.
Drewry’s October 29 assessment showed Shanghai–Los Angeles rates falling 6% week over week to $7,514/FEU, while Shanghai–New York rates declined 5% to $9,631/FEU. Industry reporting also found that some early-November Asia–Europe offers remained below carriers’ published rates. (Drewry; ContainerSignal)
This suggests that carriers may struggle to sustain the full increase on some trades without stronger demand or tighter capacity.
Our view is that another increase on selected routes remains possible, but a broad market-wide increase in late November cannot be assumed.
Rather than booking early solely because of a rate-hike announcement, importers should compare actual quotations and consider cargo readiness, available space and delivery deadlines.
4. What Should Importers Do in November?
For November shipments, we recommend three practical steps:
- Check the route-specific price change. Do not assume that a carrier’s increase applies to every destination.
- Compare the final shipping cost. Confirm applicable surcharges, THC, local charges and quotation validity.
- Book according to your shipping schedule. For ready cargo with a firm delivery deadline, secure suitable space early. For cargo that is not yet ready, monitor actual market offers instead of reacting to every rate announcement.
Final Outlook
November is shaping up to be a month of uneven rate movements rather than universal increases.
Selected Mediterranean and African routes face announced surcharges, while US spot rates have recently weakened. The final result will depend on actual demand, available capacity and whether carriers can maintain their announced prices.
For importers, the best strategy is not simply to ship before every announced increase. It is to understand which charges apply, what the final price includes, and whether the market is actually moving in the direction carriers have announced.
China Logistics Expert
About the Author
Katherine Kang is a China-based logistics consultant with over 11 years of experience in international trade and freight forwarding. Specializing in helping SMEs import from China she focuses on compliant, cost-effective solutions to avoid delays, tariffs, and hidden fees. Katherine has managed hundreds of shipments, saving clients 15-30% on average.
Connect with Katherine on LinkedIn or contact Kisun Shipping for a free import consultation.
