October 2026 Ocean Freight Rate Forecast: US Rates Stay High, Europe Under Pressure

The eight-week rise in the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has finally come to an end.

The latest SCFI, released on September 24, stood at 3,686.62 points, down 1.21 points, or just 0.03%, from the previous week. The small decline ended an eight-week run of consecutive weekly increases.

But this does not mean the global container market is suddenly entering a broad downward cycle.

The market is now moving in different directions:

• China → US: rates remain very high, but the recent upward momentum has started to weaken.
• China → Europe: rates continue to fall as effective capacity increases.
• China → Southeast Asia: rates are still rising.
• China → Middle East: geopolitical and fuel-related risks remain a major source of volatility.

For October, the key question is therefore not simply “Will freight rates go up or down?”

It is:

Which routes are likely to remain under pressure, and which ones could finally see some relief?

October 2026 Ocean Freight Rate Outlook

Route	Latest Benchmark	October Outlook
China → US West Coast	$7,463/FEU	High, with possible short-term correction
China → US East Coast	$10,497/FEU	Very high, but volatile
China → Europe	$2,313/TEU	Downward pressure continues
China → Mediterranean	$3,065/TEU	Downward pressure
China → Southeast Asia	$1,166/TEU	Upward pressure
China → Middle East	Highly volatile	High risk / difficult to predict

These are SCFI benchmark rates rather than guaranteed prices for individual shipments. The SCFI itself notes that its route rates include ocean freight and related surcharges, while actual forwarder quotations can vary according to origin, destination, carrier, service, equipment and quotation validity.

US Routes: Rates Are Cooling Slightly, But Still Very High

The latest SCFI data shows that Far East → US West Coast rates fell 1.28% week over week to $7,463/FEU, while Far East → US East Coast rates declined 0.77% to $10,497/FEU.

The decline is small, so it would be premature to describe the US market as a major correction.

Drewry’s September 24 assessment showed a similar picture. Shanghai → Los Angeles increased 2% to $7,838/FEU, while Shanghai → New York remained around $10,373/FEU. However, Drewry expected transpacific rates to ease in the following week as China’s Golden Week approached.

This gives us a more balanced starting point for October:

US freight rates are still expensive, but the market has begun to lose some of the momentum seen in August and early September.

China’s October 1–7 Golden Week holiday is also important. Carriers have already announced temporary sailing adjustments around the holiday. Maersk, for example, has announced blanked Transpacific voyages affecting both US West Coast and East Coast services, while MSC has also announced an Asia–US East Coast blank sailing for Week 41.

This creates two opposing forces:

Holiday-related demand weakness can push rates lower.

Blank sailings and reduced departures can limit how quickly rates fall.

That is why our October view is not a simple “rates will rise” or “rates will collapse.”

The more likely scenario is high-level volatility, with some room for a correction after the Golden Week peak.

Europe Freight Rates: Downward Pressure Is Still Strong

The European market is moving in the opposite direction from the US trades.

The latest SCFI put Far East → Europe at $2,313/TEU, down 4.61% week over week. Far East → Mediterranean fell to $3,065/TEU, down 1.92%.

Drewry’s September 24 data also showed continued declines. Shanghai → Rotterdam fell 4% to $3,485/FEU, while Shanghai → Genoa fell 5% to $3,835/FEU.

The main reason is not simply weak demand.

More effective vessel capacity is returning to the Asia–Europe market.

Drewry reported that containership transits through the Suez Canal increased from 41 in Week 37 to 48 in Week 38. At the same time, Sea-Intelligence estimated that around 27% of Asia–Europe container capacity was already being routed through the Red Sea/Suez Canal during September.

As more services return to the shorter Suez route, vessels spend less time at sea. That effectively puts more capacity back into circulation.

For October, this creates a relatively clear pressure point:

Unless demand strengthens materially or carriers remove enough capacity, European freight rates are likely to remain under downward pressure.

For importers, this is very different from the US market.

There is less reason to rush a normal European shipment simply because of concerns about another broad rate spike.

Panama Canal: A Different Story for October

The Panama Canal outlook has also changed since our September forecast.

Instead of further tightening in October, the Panama Canal Authority announced on September 29 that it would increase daily Neopanamax transits to 10, bringing total daily transit capacity to 33 vessels from October 15. The maximum authorized draft for Neopanamax vessels was also raised to 14.94 meters.

This is a modest improvement in available canal capacity.

However, it does not mean the Panama Canal has returned to completely normal operating conditions. The Canal Authority states that vessels without a reservation may still face delays, and water conditions continue to be monitored.

For China → US East Coast and Gulf Coast shippers, the practical implication is:

Panama Canal conditions should remain a factor to monitor, but October’s latest data does not support treating the Canal as an automatically worsening supply constraint.

That is an important difference from the September outlook.

Southeast Asia: Still Showing Upward Momentum

Southeast Asia remains one of the stronger regional markets.

The latest SCFI showed Far East → Southeast Asia rates increasing 5.61% week over week to $1,166/TEU.

Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index also increased 6% in the week ending September 24, reaching $1,491/FEU.

Because these two indices use different methodologies and container bases, their figures should not be compared directly. However, both point to continuing firmness in the intra-Asia market.

For October shipments within Southeast Asia, securing space ahead of the planned cargo-ready date remains sensible, particularly for time-sensitive cargo.

Middle East: High Volatility, Not a Simple Rate Forecast

The Middle East should be treated separately from the normal seasonal freight cycle.

Shipping conditions around the Strait of Hormuz remain highly disrupted. Reuters reported on September 23 that only three commodity vessels passed through the Strait on the previous day, significantly below the recent 10-day average of around 15.

At the same time, some maritime traffic has begun to resume, showing that the situation is not completely static.

For container shippers, this makes a precise October rate prediction particularly difficult.

Instead of assuming that Middle East rates will simply continue rising, we would describe the market as:

High volatility + elevated risk + short quotation validity.

Importers shipping to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and other Gulf destinations should therefore pay close attention to the route used, transshipment point, surcharge structure and quote validity, rather than comparing the base ocean freight alone.

About the Author

Katherine Kang is a China-based logistics consultant with over 11 years of experience in international trade and freight forwarding. Specializing in helping SMEs import from China she focuses on compliant, cost-effective solutions to avoid delays, tariffs, and hidden fees. Katherine has managed hundreds of shipments, saving clients 15-30% on average.

Connect with Katherine on LinkedIn or contact Kisun Shipping for a free import consultation.

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